Messy Matters – This Post Won’t Go Viral

In a recent study, Dun­can Watts, Dan Gold­stein, and I exam­ined the adop­tion pat­terns of sev­eral dif­fer­ent types of prod­ucts dif­fus­ing over var­i­ous online plat­forms — includ­ing Twit­ter, Face­book, and the Yahoo! IM net­work — com­pris­ing mil­lions of indi­vid­ual adopters. The fig­ure below shows the struc­ture and fre­quency of the five most com­monly seen dif­fu­sion trees in each case. In all six domains the dom­i­nant dif­fu­sion event, account­ing for between 70% to 95% of cas­cades, is the triv­ial one: an indi­vid­ual adopts the prod­uct in ques­tion and doesn’t con­vert any of their con­tacts. The next most com­mon event, again in all six domains, is an inde­pen­dent adopter who attracts a sin­gle addi­tional adopter. In fact, across domains only 1%-4% of dif­fu­sion trees extend beyond one degree.

via Messy Mat­ters – This Post Won’t Go Viral. Per­haps the more inter­est­ing aspect is that most adop­tions occur with­out a peer-to-peer influ­ence or within one step of the orig­i­nal peer.

Web Developer, constant student, backpacker and hater of the Oxford comma.

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